The government clarified that the majority of industrial establishments had reported nil production, and cautioned that the numbers should not be compared with those of previous months. "It is not appropriate to compare the IIP of April 2020 with that of earlier months, and users may like to observe the changes in the IIP in the following months," said the ministry of statistics & programme implementation.
'If you see the composition of items which are causing this spike in prices, most of them have little to do with the kharif harvest, except for pulses and vegetables to some extent.' 'I don't know on what basis the government is claiming that food prices will moderate in the weeks to come.'
Even if RBI partially replaces the stock of the high value notes, RBI will have to incur thousands of crores of rupees in cost, say economists.
If the government cuts wasteful expenditure as it is trying now, the deficit would at most fall to 8 per cent, not less than that.
If imputed inflation for April and May is used, then you have inflation of over 6 per cent for two consecutive quarters, which is a worrying signal for the RBI.
While the positive surprise has been the high growth in agriculture, the negative surprise is in the trade, transport, hotels segment where growth came lower than expected, says Madan Sabnavis.
The highest number of jobs were created in the age group of 18-21 at 1.29 million, followed by 22-25 years of age at 1.12 million during these seven months.
This time there has been a rather peculiar criticism of the latest GDP numbers.
The meeting will focus on how to make the crisis an opportunity for India.
The government had breached its fiscal deficit target given in the Budget for 2017-18 in November itself, touching 112 per cent of the limit.
While the farmers are not getting remunerative prices for their produce, at the same time they are forced to pay high prices for items they consume.
The bigger worry is that its effects could linger well into the next financial year.
The main reason was that CPI inflation would likely remain below 4 per cent till July.
CRISIL chief economist D K Joshi is of the opinion that GDP is an indicator of the health of the economy.
Experts said the slowdown could be attributed to adjustments leading to destocking and the offering of discounts by companies as the government ushered in the new indirect taxation system on July 1.
Cabinet note being readied, on basis of study, to ensure against foodgrain shortage; might require buffer of up to 50% more.
Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) Chairman C Rangarajan may have found the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s inflation projections on the higher side, but independent experts agree with the central bank and expect both wholesale and retail prices to remain high.
The reason why private banks will play the deposit pricing game strategically is the weakening of banks' deposits base given the competition from MFs and insurance companies due to tax-savings schemes.
Amid hints that the government might be exploring capping royalty payments by India-based subsidiaries to US companies, experts warn Subhayan Chakraborty why such a move will only hurt the Indian economy.
An analyst says, due to excess capacity, investment in manufacturing will not be forthcoming
Unless supported by investment, any spark of a recovery could be temporary, hint economists.
Though inflation, on the basis of the wholesale price index, is nowhere near the 1990-91 level of 10.26 per cent and India is in a much better position to check it, the greater integration of our economy with the globe has exposed it to a much higher risk of imported inflation.
According to Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief economic advisor of the State Bank of India group, a 50 bps rate cut is a possibility, but 25 bps is more likely.
Welcoming the latest round of stimulus announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday, experts said the measures will support the economic recovery boosting demand, job creation and by providing funds to the MSME and stressed sectors. The fiscal impact of the stimulus is likely to be around 0.25-0.6 per cent of GDP in the current fiscal, they said.
The Consumer Price Index hit the lowest in six months in March at 4.83 per cent.
A reversal of policy at this juncture could jeopardise the recent gains on inflation
Much of the rural recovery story is based on the premise of agriculture doing well. Even if it clocks a growth of 2.5-3 per cent this year, it is still just around 15 per cent of the overall GDP. The non-farm sector, which constitutes a bigger portion of the overall rural economy, is now hampered by disruptions and lockdowns.
Experts say it will make GDP growth target of 5.7-5.8% difficult to achieve, while ministries feel late resurgence will help in sowing of rabi crops.
Skymet said the monsoon this year could be 100 per cent of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus and minus 5 per cent.
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Else, more capital outflow and pressure on rupee likely.
Poor rainfall has also depleted water reservoirs levels, which is likely to impact the winter crops.
Significant portion of the funds used to fuel urban demand have become illegal and inoperative.
The interest rate on FDs hasn't changed much over the years.
In absolute terms, the year closed with the market capitalisation of all BSE-listed companies rising by Rs 45.5 lakh crore to Rs 152 lakh crore, or an increase of 42.8 per cent, compared to the closing value on December 30, 2016, says Pavan Burugula.
The NITI Aayog's vice-chairman's charge holds ground.
The next 12 months will be quite challenging marked by uncertain political events and evolving macroeconomic scenario
The real benefits can be seen when prices stabilise, preferably at levels acceptable to both consumers and producers.
More than 40% of the companies surveyed showed job contraction in FY18, says a report by CARE Ratings
With weekly additions slowing, it's likely that demand could be slackening
For development finance institution to succeed now, the government must stand like a rock behind it and be patient.
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